06
Sun, Oct
2 New Articles

Conjuring the Coming Year: Eight Predictions for 2008

Analysis of News Events
Typography
  • Smaller Small Medium Big Bigger
  • Default Helvetica Segoe Georgia Times

The System i community will face a complex set of economic and business trends this year that will make for interesting times.

 

As we stand at the leading edge of 2008, allow me to ask a less-than-philosophical question. What would this time of year be like without long-winded predictions from analysts such as yours truly about what the next 365 days will bring?

 

I hate to admit it, but I imagine that some of you are saying "better" right now. If you are, please bear with me as I enact this annual ritual. I promise that I will try to make this year's prognostications as useful as possible. With that promise in mind, here are eight predictions for 2008.

 

Prediction #1—Technology spending among mid-market companies will be sluggish but could pick up toward the end of the year. In an article that I wrote last August, I predicted that North American IT spending would grow by a mere 3 percent to 5 percent in 2008. While the big analyst firms took issue with my bleak predictions back then, they agree with me now. Last month, International Data Corporation estimated that IT spending in the U.S. will increase by 3 percent to 4 percent this year. On a similar note, Forrester Research reduced its domestic growth projection to 4.6 percent. The only firm that remains outside my range is Gartner Group, which is calling for a 5.7 percent boost.

 

I predict that many IT departments in the consumer discretionary, financial, manufacturing, and transportation sectors will receive no spending increases or face cutbacks in 2008. However, I still expect that overall domestic IT spending will increase by 3 percent to 5 percent. Much of this increase will come from companies that are in non-cyclical industries or have strong overseas demand for their products. There is also a good chance that the domestic economy will pick up toward the end of the year. That could lead some companies to loosen their purse strings during the fourth quarter.

 

Prediction #2—IBM will offer i5/OS on blade servers, but acceptance by rank-and-file System i users will take time. While Big Blue has taken longer than I expected to ship i5/OS on its BladeCenter, it will do so by this spring. When it does, the new offering will definitely grab the attention of the System i community. However, System i professionals will discover that managing blade-based i5/OS environments is a different experience than managing traditional systems. Those differences will require time to digest before many customers feel comfortable deploying i5/OS workloads on blades.

 

Prediction #3—Tighter IT budgets and the "green revolution" will convince many System i shops to embrace virtualization. With the economy slowing and energy prices rising, many mid-size companies will launch initiatives this year to cut their power usage. As a result, System i professionals will be asked to squeeze every drop of computing power out of the megawatts they consume. That should lead to the increased use of System i logical partitions in smaller companies that have previously avoided LPARs. It will also promote deployments of i5/OS on IBM's BladeCenter in IT departments that have experience managing blade server environments.

 

Prediction #4—Unified communications will gain a wider following among System i customers. For most mid-market firms, 2007 was a year to kick the tires on offerings that integrate voice mails, emails, instant messages, and other forms of communication with each other and with business applications. This year, many of those firms will start deploying unified communications offerings. This will represent an important growth opportunity for the System i as it hosts Voice over IP (VOIP) products from both 3COM and Nortel as well as unified communications software from IBM and other vendors. However, the System i will face stiff competition from Microsoft, which is heavily marketing its own UC platform.

 

Prediction #5—Growing numbers of mid-market companies will embrace alternatives to Microsoft Office. While Microsoft remains a formidable company, its Office franchise has cracks in its foundation. Now that customers face the prospect of learning Office 2007's radically different interface, many of them are considering cheaper alternatives. In 2008, I expect that millions of users and thousands of businesses will actually make the switch. They will embrace online options such as Google Docs, Live Documents, ThinkFree Online, and Zoho as well as on-premises products such as OpenOffice and Lotus Symphony. The latter product should get a particularly warm reception from System i customers because of their widespread use of Lotus Notes.

 

Prediction #6—Business managers will put more pressure on System i professionals to integrate business intelligence (BI) capabilities into their applications. For years, BI offerings have been evolving from specialized software used by analysts to general tools that managers and their employees can use on a daily basis. That evolution took a leap forward last year when IBM, Oracle, and SAP purchased Cognos, Hyperion, and Business Objects, respectively. Now, these vendors are trumpeting a new era in which BI will be an integral part of all core business applications. That message is ringing in the ears of mid-market business managers, and they will be asking System i professionals how they can make the new era a reality in their companies.

 

Prediction #7—Employees in mid-market companies will use a growing number of Web 2.0 applications, making their integration with business applications a hot topic. Forward-thinking employees in many companies have realized that Web 2.0—the convergence of advanced Web development technologies with social networking tools such as blogs and wikis—can help them build their businesses. Now, software vendors are getting on the bandwagon by helping companies integrate Web 2.0 technologies into their business applications. In mid-December, for instance, IBM announced the WebSphere Application Server Feature Pack for Web 2.0. The feature pack includes an AJAX Development Toolkit and connectors to link applications to Web services, RSS feeds, and various data services. The new feature pack runs on WebSphere Application Server 6.0 and above, including the i5/OS version, and can be downloaded for free by licensed users.

 

Prediction #8—IBM will announce a major new initiative to sell its systems and software into small and medium-size businesses (SMBs). Last July, IBM announced that it was splitting the System i product line between two divisions. The System i Models 570 and above went to the Power Systems Division (which also owns the System p) while the System i Models 550 and below went to the newly formed Business Systems Division (BSD). At the announcement, IBM stated that the BSD would not only be responsible for these System i models, but also develop offerings for the SMB market across IBM's product brands. Since that time, however, virtually no news has come out of the BSD about its plans for such cross-brand offerings.

 

That kind of silence is not typical for IBM, and I believe it means that something big is brewing inside the company. With that in mind, I predict that the BSD will announce a strategic cross-brand SMB initiative this year. While the System i will play a significant part in the initiative, other platforms will play key roles as well. Whatever IBM announces, I believe that it will take the company's SMB strategy—not to mention the System i—in surprising new directions.

 

There you have it…eight fresh predictions for 2008. In the spirit of the seventh prediction, I hope that you will use the newly redesigned MC Press Online site to discuss the predictions among yourselves and to let me know what you think 2008 will bring. My wish to you all is that the New Year will bring you many professional opportunities and satisfying achievements.

LEE KROON
Lee Kroon is a Senior Industry Analyst for Andrews Consulting Group, a firm that helps mid-sized companies manage business transformation through technology.
BLOG COMMENTS POWERED BY DISQUS

LATEST COMMENTS

Support MC Press Online

$

Book Reviews

Resource Center

  • SB Profound WC 5536 Have you been wondering about Node.js? Our free Node.js Webinar Series takes you from total beginner to creating a fully-functional IBM i Node.js business application. You can find Part 1 here. In Part 2 of our free Node.js Webinar Series, Brian May teaches you the different tooling options available for writing code, debugging, and using Git for version control. Brian will briefly discuss the different tools available, and demonstrate his preferred setup for Node development on IBM i or any platform. Attend this webinar to learn:

  • SB Profound WP 5539More than ever, there is a demand for IT to deliver innovation. Your IBM i has been an essential part of your business operations for years. However, your organization may struggle to maintain the current system and implement new projects. The thousands of customers we've worked with and surveyed state that expectations regarding the digital footprint and vision of the company are not aligned with the current IT environment.

  • SB HelpSystems ROBOT Generic IBM announced the E1080 servers using the latest Power10 processor in September 2021. The most powerful processor from IBM to date, Power10 is designed to handle the demands of doing business in today’s high-tech atmosphere, including running cloud applications, supporting big data, and managing AI workloads. But what does Power10 mean for your data center? In this recorded webinar, IBMers Dan Sundt and Dylan Boday join IBM Power Champion Tom Huntington for a discussion on why Power10 technology is the right strategic investment if you run IBM i, AIX, or Linux. In this action-packed hour, Tom will share trends from the IBM i and AIX user communities while Dan and Dylan dive into the tech specs for key hardware, including:

  • Magic MarkTRY the one package that solves all your document design and printing challenges on all your platforms. Produce bar code labels, electronic forms, ad hoc reports, and RFID tags – without programming! MarkMagic is the only document design and print solution that combines report writing, WYSIWYG label and forms design, and conditional printing in one integrated product. Make sure your data survives when catastrophe hits. Request your trial now!  Request Now.

  • SB HelpSystems ROBOT GenericForms of ransomware has been around for over 30 years, and with more and more organizations suffering attacks each year, it continues to endure. What has made ransomware such a durable threat and what is the best way to combat it? In order to prevent ransomware, organizations must first understand how it works.

  • SB HelpSystems ROBOT GenericIT security is a top priority for businesses around the world, but most IBM i pros don’t know where to begin—and most cybersecurity experts don’t know IBM i. In this session, Robin Tatam explores the business impact of lax IBM i security, the top vulnerabilities putting IBM i at risk, and the steps you can take to protect your organization. If you’re looking to avoid unexpected downtime or corrupted data, you don’t want to miss this session.

  • SB HelpSystems ROBOT GenericCan you trust all of your users all of the time? A typical end user receives 16 malicious emails each month, but only 17 percent of these phishing campaigns are reported to IT. Once an attack is underway, most organizations won’t discover the breach until six months later. A staggering amount of damage can occur in that time. Despite these risks, 93 percent of organizations are leaving their IBM i systems vulnerable to cybercrime. In this on-demand webinar, IBM i security experts Robin Tatam and Sandi Moore will reveal:

  • FORTRA Disaster protection is vital to every business. Yet, it often consists of patched together procedures that are prone to error. From automatic backups to data encryption to media management, Robot automates the routine (yet often complex) tasks of iSeries backup and recovery, saving you time and money and making the process safer and more reliable. Automate your backups with the Robot Backup and Recovery Solution. Key features include:

  • FORTRAManaging messages on your IBM i can be more than a full-time job if you have to do it manually. Messages need a response and resources must be monitored—often over multiple systems and across platforms. How can you be sure you won’t miss important system events? Automate your message center with the Robot Message Management Solution. Key features include:

  • FORTRAThe thought of printing, distributing, and storing iSeries reports manually may reduce you to tears. Paper and labor costs associated with report generation can spiral out of control. Mountains of paper threaten to swamp your files. Robot automates report bursting, distribution, bundling, and archiving, and offers secure, selective online report viewing. Manage your reports with the Robot Report Management Solution. Key features include:

  • FORTRAFor over 30 years, Robot has been a leader in systems management for IBM i. With batch job creation and scheduling at its core, the Robot Job Scheduling Solution reduces the opportunity for human error and helps you maintain service levels, automating even the biggest, most complex runbooks. Manage your job schedule with the Robot Job Scheduling Solution. Key features include:

  • LANSA Business users want new applications now. Market and regulatory pressures require faster application updates and delivery into production. Your IBM i developers may be approaching retirement, and you see no sure way to fill their positions with experienced developers. In addition, you may be caught between maintaining your existing applications and the uncertainty of moving to something new.

  • LANSAWhen it comes to creating your business applications, there are hundreds of coding platforms and programming languages to choose from. These options range from very complex traditional programming languages to Low-Code platforms where sometimes no traditional coding experience is needed. Download our whitepaper, The Power of Writing Code in a Low-Code Solution, and:

  • LANSASupply Chain is becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable. From raw materials for manufacturing to food supply chains, the journey from source to production to delivery to consumers is marred with inefficiencies, manual processes, shortages, recalls, counterfeits, and scandals. In this webinar, we discuss how:

  • The MC Resource Centers bring you the widest selection of white papers, trial software, and on-demand webcasts for you to choose from. >> Review the list of White Papers, Trial Software or On-Demand Webcast at the MC Press Resource Center. >> Add the items to yru Cart and complet he checkout process and submit

  • Profound Logic Have you been wondering about Node.js? Our free Node.js Webinar Series takes you from total beginner to creating a fully-functional IBM i Node.js business application.

  • SB Profound WC 5536Join us for this hour-long webcast that will explore:

  • Fortra IT managers hoping to find new IBM i talent are discovering that the pool of experienced RPG programmers and operators or administrators with intimate knowledge of the operating system and the applications that run on it is small. This begs the question: How will you manage the platform that supports such a big part of your business? This guide offers strategies and software suggestions to help you plan IT staffing and resources and smooth the transition after your AS/400 talent retires. Read on to learn: